The latest data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics has revealed that the country’s export growth has surged, giving President Xi Jinping a significant advantage in the ongoing trade war with the United States.
According to the figures, China’s exports rose by 8.3% in September compared to the same time last year, far surpassing expectations and outpacing August’s growth. This surge in exports indicates that China’s industrial engine remains strong, despite the US government’s efforts to apply pressure through tariffs and technology restrictions.
The news comes as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests that the current three-month pause on import duties could be extended, but only if China abandons its plan to impose strict new export controls on rare-earth elements. These materials are essential for global manufacturing, from electric vehicles to advanced chips and weapons systems.
Nigel Green, CEO of global financial advisory firm deVere Group, warns that the latest data is a game-changer for the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
“Scott Bessent is trying to leverage tariff relief, but Beijing’s export rebound means the pressure is flowing both ways,” says Green. “Xi Jinping now has proof that China’s trade engine is resilient and that his government can absorb external shocks while the US is still struggling to gain negotiating traction.”
The trade war between the US and China has escalated in recent weeks, with Beijing announcing sweeping export licenses for rare-earth and magnet technologies, effectively tightening its grip over supply chains that the West cannot yet replace. In response, the US has threatened 100% tariffs, imposed new restrictions on Chinese software, and discussed coordinating with allies through the G7 to deter further Chinese restrictions.
“The trade war has evolved into a power contest over who controls the materials and technologies that drive the modern economy,” says Green. “China’s message is that it can dictate the pace of global production, while Washington’s message is that it’s willing to risk economic pain to prevent that dominance. Neither side looks ready to back down.”
Despite the ongoing standoff, China’s export growth has been driven by markets far beyond the US. Shipments to the European Union, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America are all rising at double-digit rates, showing how effectively Beijing has diversified its trade routes.
Nigel Green says this is one of the most significant shifts of the decade, as it demonstrates how global manufacturing still relies on China’s capacity, logistics, and pricing power. “Even in a period of confrontation, the rest of the world cannot easily step away,” he adds.
The increasing tension between the US and China is already being felt in the markets, with increased currency volatility, a jump in commodity prices, and investors reassessing their exposure to sectors tied to global manufacturing.
“The next phase of this trade battle will shape monetary policy and investor sentiment worldwide,” warns Green. “If tariffs continue to rise and supply chains fracture, we could see a return of inflationary pressures just as central banks are preparing to loosen policy. This could create both disruption and opportunities for investors.”
Green advises investors to maintain diversified exposure across regions and asset classes, as periods of geopolitical stress often produce outsized gains for those positioned ahead of the cycle. He believes that countries and companies that can fill the production gaps left by restricted trade will emerge as major winners.
He concludes by saying that although the US might hold the world’s largest consumer market, China is proving that it still controls the world’s factory floor.
Derick is an experienced reporter having held multiple senior roles for large publishers across Europe. Specialist subjects include small business and financial emerging markets.