A recent study reveals that Tunisia’s economy is posing a threat to its democracy.

Study Warns of Tunisia’s Fragile Democracy as 2024 Elections Approach

Tunis/Los Angeles – Tunisia’s democracy, once celebrated as the Arab Spring’s success story, is now facing a dangerous regression back into authoritarianism, according to a new study released by the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI).

As the country prepares for the October 2024 elections, analysts are concerned that President Kaïs Saïed may tighten his grip on power, undoing the progress made after the 2011 Jasmine Revolution.

The BGI report, conducted by researchers from the Luskin School of Public Affairs at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), the Los Angeles-based Berggruen Institute, and the Hertie School in Berlin, Germany, analyzes the factors that have led Tunisia to this critical moment.

The Jasmine Revolution, sparked by public outrage over the autocratic rule of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, became the catalyst for the wider Arab Spring movement in 2010. While other countries in the region faced civil war or counter-revolution, Tunisia emerged as a beacon of hope.

In the years following the revolution, Tunisia made significant political reforms, scoring well on the BGI Democratic Accountability Index and improving state capacity to combat corruption and inefficiency. By 2021, the country had established itself as one of the few democracies in the region. However, economic challenges persisted, laying the foundation for a brewing crisis.

Despite the political progress, Tunisia’s economic struggles were not resolved after the revolution. While democracy flourished, the provision of public goods such as education, health, and infrastructure remained inadequate. Economic growth stagnated, leading to a rise in unemployment, poverty, and emigration.

The BGI report reveals this trend, with Tunisia’s democratic accountability score rising while its fiscal capacity faltered, reaching concerning lows by 2021. The failure to deliver material benefits to the population eroded trust in democratic institutions, leading to widespread disillusionment.

The study, conducted by independent researchers from multiple countries, attributes Tunisia’s economic stagnation to both internal and external factors. Internally, the country’s governance struggled to stabilize its economy after the revolution. Externally, a decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) exacerbated the situation, as investors grew wary of Tunisia’s fragile political environment.

In the 2019 elections, Kaïs Saïed, a law professor, rose to power on a populist wave, signaling a shift in Tunisia’s political trajectory. While initially praised for challenging the elite, Saïed has since taken steps to erode the democratic foundations that brought him to power.

In 2021, Saïed suspended parliament in what many described as an “auto-coup.” A year later, a constitutional referendum expanded his powers at the expense of the legislative branch, raising concerns of a return to authoritarianism. Human rights organizations have condemned his increasing use of repression, imprisonment of opposition leaders, and violent crackdowns on migrants. According to the study, Tunisia’s once celebrated democracy is now at risk.

The growing political repression under Saïed’s rule sets the tone for the upcoming 2024 elections, which analysts predict will be a mere formality to legitimize his continued hold on power. Human Rights Watch has reported severe restrictions on opposition groups, and one candidate is even running his campaign from prison.

Meanwhile, Tunisia’s deepening economic crisis has direct consequences for its citizens. The government’s rejection of a 2 billion US-Dollar loan from the International Monetary Fund in 2023, criticized by President Saïed as a “dictate,” was seen as a populist move but ultimately isolated the country from vital international financial support. As citizens face rising unemployment, inflation, and food insecurity, the prospects for a democratic recovery seem slim.

The situation in Tunisia serves as a stark reminder of the complex relationship between democracy and economic development. The BGI report shows that countries with stronger democracies often have higher living standards. However, in Tunisia’s case, democracy has failed to deliver the expected economic benefits. This failure is partly due to the challenges faced by developing democracies, where public pressure for immediate consumption can hinder long-term investments necessary for sustainable growth. Additionally, economic uncertainty has deterred foreign investors from investing in Tunisia.

The precarious state of Tunisia’s economy has had dire consequences for its citizens. Vulnerable employment is on the rise, and the number of undernourished individuals has reached levels not seen since the revolution. The economic crisis has fueled social discontent, and with no clear solutions in sight, the country risks further instability.

The situation in Tunisia highlights a broader challenge facing emerging democracies worldwide: the need to deliver both political reform and economic progress. When governments fail to improve living standards, citizens may grow disillusioned with democracy, creating an opening for authoritarian leaders to consolidate power.

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