LOS ANGELES/DNA – With less than three weeks to go until the November 5 presidential election, a new analysis warns that declining democratic accountability in the US means the power of American people’s voice will be diminished.
The report, titled “Democratic Distortions and a Struggling State: The United States on the Eve of the 2024 Presidential Election”, was released by researchers from the Luskin School of Public Affairs at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), the Los Angeles-based Berggruen Institute and the Hertie School, a university in Berlin, Germany. The report highlights critical governance challenges that threaten the efficacy of the US political system.
According to the researchers, both democratic accountability and state capacity have sharply declined in the US since 2015, particularly in key swing states. This decline in democratic accountability has resulted in decreased electoral, social, and institutional accountability. For example, electoral accountability scores dropped from 92 points (out of 100) in 2015 to 82 points in 2021.
“Declining democratic accountability means that the power of the American people’s voice will be diminished – both in terms of electoral voice and the power of social institutions to check elected officials once in office”, the authors behind the new Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) report conclude, adding that a second Trump presidency would pose major challenges for the already struggling electoral system.
The report also highlights dramatic declines in democratic norms at the state level, with “critical consequences for electoral integrity”. Many of the important swing states such as North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Georgia have seen significant drops in democratic norms. For example, North Carolina has experienced the biggest decline in democratic norms of any swing state, dropping from near 100 in the mid-2000s to less than 25 in 2018. “This drop, and those in many other states, occurs in the context of well-documented crackdowns on voting rights that reached an ‘unprecedented’ level in 2023”, the authors write.
The report also raises concerns about voter turnout, which remains low in comparison to other advanced democracies. In 2020, voter turnout was only 66%, lagging behind most Western European countries where elections were held between 2018 and 2022.
The report also highlights the outsized role of money in politics in the US, which has been exacerbated by landmark US Supreme Court decisions that have removed limits on electoral spending. This trend, according to the researchers, has led to a political landscape in which the voices of average citizens are increasingly being marginalized.
In terms of state capacity, the report finds a broad and steady erosion since 2000, occurring across the sectors of fiscal capacity, coordination capacity, and delivery capacity. This weakened state capacity negatively affects the US government’s ability to respond to crises or natural disasters, leading to popular anger and increasing frustration with government efficacy.
The report also analyzes the potential impact of the November 5 election on these critical governance challenges. If the Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris wins, the researchers believe that she will likely continue some of President Joe Biden’s current policies and investments, possibly reversing declines in state capacity. On the other hand, Republican candidate Donald Trump is more likely to apply drastic cuts to the US administrative state.
Overall, the findings highlight critical governance challenges that have developed over time, impacting democratic accountability, state capacity, and public goods provision in the US. These challenges will persist regardless of the election outcome, the researchers say. While a Democratic Party-led administration may address these issues better than one led by Donald Trump, both scenarios face significant obstacles, the report concludes.
“The balance across all three dimensions suggests that a Harris administration may be to the long-term benefit of US governance, but many of the factors we identified as shaping the preexisting dynamics of US politics could limit the likelihood of this outcome”, the report says.
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Derick is an experienced reporter having held multiple senior roles for large publishers across Europe. Specialist subjects include small business and financial emerging markets.