Sodium-ion Batteries: The Next Big Thing in Energy Storage
On Thursday 6 June, 2024, it was reported that simplistic calculations have been used to compare lithium carbonate and sodium-ion batteries, with the conclusion that if lithium carbonate remains cheap, sodium-ion batteries have no hope. However, experts in the field have labeled this statement as “nonsense”, stating that different manufacturers are optimizing different features to serve different markets, making a direct comparison between the two types of batteries unfair.
According to industry leaders, sodium-ion batteries have the potential to be cheaper than lithium-ion batteries, both in terms of up-front cost and levelized cost of storage. This is partly due to the low cost of raw materials, but also because sodium-ion batteries are at the beginning of their experience curve, allowing for other elements of cost to come down rapidly without the diminishing returns seen in mature lithium-ion technology.
But cost is not the only benefit of sodium-ion batteries. They also offer multiple advantages in terms of performance, including the ability to be fully discharged, faster charging times, and higher watts per watt-hour. They can also be optimized for higher energy density at a given high power density, providing better low temperature performance. At the system level, sodium-ion batteries offer improvements in safety, deployment, energy density, and cost compared to lithium-ion batteries at the cell level.
Furthermore, sodium-ion batteries may require less cooling, battery management systems, fire-prevention and firefighting infrastructure, and recycling cost. This makes them a more attractive option for large-scale stationary storage, as they can be safely stacked without the need for a large footprint. In some cases, these benefits can offset any energy density deficit at the cell level. In addition, sodium-ion batteries are expected to have a longer cycle life, resulting in lower total cost of ownership and applicability in various industries.
The versatility of sodium-ion batteries is reflected in the multiple business cases being pursued by different companies. For example, Natron, which is optimizing parameters such as cycle life, is targeting applications such as vehicle chargers, short-term grid and off-grid storage, and counterweighted industrial electric vehicles. On the other hand, other sodium-ion proponents are focusing on parameters such as energy density for electric cars. This shows that sodium-ion batteries are not being sold on cost alone, but rather on their ability to meet specific market needs.
The rise of sodium-ion batteries is expected to have a significant impact on the lithium-ion battery market. It is predicted that lithium-ion battery value sales will peak no later than 2037, after which they will decline steeply. This decline will be driven by the adoption of base metal-ion batteries, with sodium-ion batteries leading the way and taking a significant share of the market. By 2037, it is estimated that these batteries, along with other emerging technologies, could take a $40 billion bite out of the lithium-ion market.
The impact of sodium-ion batteries on the lithium-ion market will be felt in several areas. First, the rise of electric cars and the commoditization of lithium-ion technology will lead to a decline in sales. Additionally, the largest energy storage market is expected to be for stationary storage, particularly for Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES). Here, sodium-ion batteries are expected to have a significant advantage due to their ability to provide discharge durations of days up to one month. This is an area where lithium-ion batteries struggle to compete, as they are better suited for shorter duration applications.
So what comes after sodium-ion batteries? Researchers are betting on zinc-ion batteries, which offer similar benefits. However, they are still in the early stages of development and may not be able to compete with sodium-ion batteries in terms of self-leakage and economy of size for mainstream LDES. It is clear that sodium-ion batteries have the potential to revolutionize the energy storage market, and it is time to have a meaningful discussion about their role in the future. For more information on the latest developments in energy storage, visit www.zharresearch.com and www.giiresearch.com.
Derick is an experienced reporter having held multiple senior roles for large publishers across Europe. Specialist subjects include small business and financial emerging markets.