France Faces Decades of Unresolved Issues Amidst Right-Wing Election Surge, New Report Says
Paris, France – As France prepares for a crucial second round of parliamentary elections on Sunday, a new report released by global governance researchers reveals that the country’s current turmoil is the result of decades of unresolved issues.
The report, titled “When the Center Cannot Hold: Governance Performance and Political Backlash in France,” was a joint effort by researchers from the Luskin School of Public Affairs at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), the Los Angeles-based Berggruen Institute, and the Hertie School in Berlin, Germany. It highlights the country’s ongoing struggles with economic stagnation, social inequality, and tensions around migration as key factors fueling the rise of right-wing parties.
The surprise snap elections were called by President Macron after his centrist Renaissance party was defeated by Marine Le Pen’s far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) in the European Parliament elections in May. The outcome of the first round on June 30 saw RN capturing 34% of the vote, causing concern throughout Europe. A win by RN on July 7 would put a far-right-wing party in power for the first time since Nazi Germany occupied France during World War II.
Despite efforts to form a “Republican Front” to prevent Le Pen’s handpicked 28-year-old Jordan Bardella from becoming prime minister, the report suggests that France’s current turmoil can be traced to underlying issues that have been brewing for decades.
“The swing to the right seen in France is a reflection of a larger trend seen in other European countries, but also has some specific national characteristics that date back several decades,” the report states.
The report also points out that France’s high ranking in terms of its quality of democracy, government, and quality of life has masked deep-rooted social challenges that are now being expressed at the polls.
“It is clear that France’s economic performance, persistent inequalities, and tensions around migration have fueled the rise of the right-wing,” the researchers write. “Should Marine Le Pen’s party prevail on Sunday and potentially take the presidency in 2027, France’s governance rating would be threatened.”
The report highlights the impact of regional issues stemming from centralization, such as widespread financial insecurity, the dominance of Paris in politics and economics, and a lack of social mobility, as factors contributing to the increased support for right-wing parties, particularly among younger voters.
The researchers also draw attention to France’s longstanding tradition of protest and its connection to the current political crisis. Recent events, such as the “yellow vest” movement in 2018-2019 and the protests against Macron’s pension reforms, show that the French have a history of revolting against government actions. However, the legislative elections suggest that the calls for change have gone unanswered.
The report also warns of the potential consequences of a RN win, stating that it could result in a political deadlock that would not only affect France but also have implications for European decision-making, including Ukraine’s efforts to counter Russia’s invasion.
But the researchers point to longer-term concerns for France if action is not taken to address underlying inequalities.
“If the growing equality gap is not properly addressed, France faces a vicious cycle of an emboldened far right that feeds on economic insecurity and social resentment but lacks the ability to solve them,” the report states.
The report’s authors recommend that the French government focus on addressing economic and social issues that drive regional inequalities, such as improving rural infrastructure and giving regions more decision-making autonomy. They also suggest fostering social integration and increasing employment opportunities for migrant communities.
The full report will be published online at https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2/.
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Derick is an experienced reporter having held multiple senior roles for large publishers across Europe. Specialist subjects include small business and financial emerging markets.