The latest findings of the Transformation Index of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, now in its tenth edition, have revealed a steady decline in the quality of democracy in developing and transformation countries over the past 20 years. Out of 137 countries surveyed, only 63 remain democracies, while a majority are now classified as autocracies.
These findings, released on Tuesday 19 March, 2024, highlight the worrying trend of democratic erosion around the world. The BTI, which has been monitoring democracy, economic performance, and governance since 2006, has found that over the years, more and more countries have faced pressure to limit political participation, restrict assembly and association rights, and control freedom of expression.
“In the early years of the BTI, almost 20 years ago, democracies around the world faced much less pressure,” said Dr. Hauke Hartmann, Senior Expert at the Bertelsmann Stiftung. “Today, almost a third of the 137 countries surveyed by the BTI show the lowest level of political participation opportunities ever recorded by the BTI.”
The erosion of democracy can provide a pathway for the establishment of authoritarian rule, as seen in the cases of Bangladesh, Mozambique, and Türkiye. However, there is still hope for democracy, as shown by the examples of Brazil and Poland. In these countries, voters have rejected authoritarian trends, demonstrating the potential for reversing the decline of democracy.
The report also highlights the importance of strong institutions and mechanisms of oversight in countering the erosion of democracy. Free and fair elections have brought about change in some East-Central and Southeastern European countries, as well as in Latin America. “Authoritarian trends can be stopped at the ballot box,” said Hartmann. “This requires a mobilization of civil society prior to elections and a return to the rule of law after the elections.”
The resilience of civil society is crucial in defending democracy, as seen in recent examples from Brazil, Kenya, and Zambia. These countries have successfully worked with electoral authorities and constitutional courts to ensure fair elections and uphold their integrity. In countries like Poland and Sri Lanka, successful mobilization efforts have also safeguarded civil and social rights. These instances highlight the importance of uniting street-level activism with institutional checks on government power to effectively resist authoritarian trends.
While some authoritarian leaders claim that their states are governed more efficiently than democracies, the latest BTI findings suggest otherwise. The report reveals that the bottom 45 regimes on the efficiency scale are plagued by disorganization and corruption. Although a few autocratic regimes demonstrate efficient governance, they are a rare exception.
The report also emphasizes the link between the quality of democracy and good governance, particularly in terms of consensus-building. In 80 countries, the ability and willingness to foster consensus have declined over the past decade, marking a significant setback in the realm of good governance. “In many cases, governments have neglected efforts to cultivate societal consensus for too long,” said Sabine Donner, Senior Expert at the Bertelsmann Stiftung. “Continuous dialogue and inclusivity in decision-making processes are not weaknesses but strengths of democratic governance.”
To counteract the erosion of democracy, the Bertelsmann Stiftung recommends strengthening and safeguarding civil society and institutions, as well as focusing on good policymaking. The Transformation Index, which is based on qualitative input from comprehensive country reports, is the only international comparative index that measures the quality of governance using data collected by the project itself, offering a comprehensive analysis of the role of political steering functions in transformation processes.
For more information about the Transformation Index or the Bertelsmann Stiftung, please visit: www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de.
Derick is an experienced reporter having held multiple senior roles for large publishers across Europe. Specialist subjects include small business and financial emerging markets.