TELF AG has recently released a situational report (sitrep) on the Dry Bulk Market, titled “Steady Growth in Dry Bulk Market Across All Sectors Raises Questions on Longevity,” dated September 21, 2023. This timely analysis offers a comprehensive examination of the various sectors within the Dry Bulk market, encompassing data, trends, and future projections.
The report highlights several significant developments in the industry. In the Cape sector, there has been a notable surge, marked by a 46% week-on-week increase in the average 5TC, rising from USD 11743 to USD 17145. Furthermore, the report acknowledges robust volumes in all sectors, notably compensating for the previous losses incurred by Vale. The Freight Forward Agreement (FFA) market has also mirrored this positive sentiment.
TELF AG’s analysis underscores that charterers are adopting a cautious approach due to the sharp rise in rates. The bid/offer spread is widening, particularly towards the end of the week. Despite these cautionary signals, the overall market fundamentals appear sound, with expectations of continued strength in the fourth quarter. However, it is anticipated that October could represent the peak before transitioning into the historically weaker first quarter.
In the Panamax sector, growth continues, as evidenced by the index rising from USD 14610 to USD 15361. The primary driving force remains grain shipments, particularly from East Coast South America and the U.S. Gulf. In the Atlantic region, where activity was relatively low a few weeks ago, cargo volumes have surged, and rates have stabiliSed. TELF AG cautions that maintaining these rates throughout the year will depend on a further pickup in coal demand.
The analysis extends to the Handysize and Supramax segments in the Atlantic Ocean. The report observes that charterers with flexibility in laycan dates are withdrawing from the market, leading to increased offer/bid differentials.
In regional analyses, TELF AG notes that the Baltic/Continent market maintains equilibrium, featuring a diverse mix of grain, fertilizer, scrap, and coal shipments. Rates for voyages to Asia are hovering around USD 34,000 per day, while those to the Mediterranean Sea vary between USD 22,000 and USD 26,000 per day.
In the Black Sea area, vessel availability is fair, but demand remains stagnant. Rates for transatlantic trips for supramax vessels stand at around USD 22,000-23,000 per day, while fronthaul rates are fixed at approximately USD 33,000 per day. Meanwhile, the US Gulf market is experiencing a slower start, whereas the East Coast South America market remains robust.
For individuals with an interest in the dry bulk market, this article serves as essential reading to grasp the intricacies and trends affecting various sectors. TELF AG maintains its commitment to delivering accurate and actionable insights to all participants in the market.
To gain a more comprehensive understanding of these developments, readers are encouraged to review the full article. For additional insights and content, please visit TELF AG’s Media Page.
