“Ten Years Later, Brazil and China Take Center Stage on Global Climate as the U.S. Withdraws”

Ten years after the historic signing of the Paris Climate Agreement, the United States’ withdrawal from the accord has cast a shadow over international efforts. However, cooperation among other nations continues with renewed urgency, and Brazil is at the forefront of this evolving climate landscape.

As the host of the upcoming COP30 Climate Summit to be held in Belém this November, Brazil is rising to the occasion and demonstrating that global climate ambition can and must endure, even in the absence of U.S. leadership.

The U.S.’s reversal on climate policy under President Donald Trump has been significant. Upon returning to the White House, President Trump initiated a broad rollback of international environmental commitments, leading to the closure of USAID, a long-standing provider of green financing and climate aid. This closure represents a considerable reduction in support for vulnerable nations tackling climate challenges.

Additionally, the Trump administration has canceled billions of dollars in climate-related funding, frozen or eliminated clean energy incentives, and withdrawn from the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), a $45 billion multinational initiative aimed at helping coal-dependent countries shift toward renewables. These actions have had ripple effects globally, with Europe finding itself more isolated as the U.S. steps back.

In response to these challenges, the European Union (EU) has strived to position itself as a key actor in global climate diplomacy and decarbonization efforts. However, the EU’s green ambitions are being squeezed by difficult macroeconomic conditions, political backlash against climate regulations, and a funding shortfall of up to €16.32 trillion between 2020 and 2050.

Amidst this fractured landscape, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has made climate diplomacy a central pillar of the country’s international strategy. Brazil’s enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), submitted in early 2025, sets an ambitious target to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by 59% to 67% by 2035 from 2005 levels. This target represents a strategic reorientation of Brazil’s development model, aligning climate action with economic opportunity, particularly in the Amazon region.

Brazil is also mobilizing regional and international support for stronger NDCs and urging China, India, and EU member states to raise their climate ambitions ahead of COP30. This proactive approach has positioned Brazil as a force for unity in climate action, proving that climate credibility is possible for the Global South.

China, another key player in the global green transition, has taken a series of decisive actions to fill the gap left by the U.S.’s withdrawal of climate finance. In addition to setting new emissions reduction targets before COP30, China has launched green financial instruments overseas, diversifying its funding sources and demonstrating its confidence and determination to develop a green transformation.

By using financial innovation to accelerate energy transformation, China has provided a model for other countries to follow in the race for a low-carbon economy. Its dual strategy indicates both opportunities and the urgency of green transformation.