Europe’s right-wing parties are poised to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction after years of austerity policies in many countries, according to a new report released just before the European Parliament elections.
The report, titled “Right-wing Populism, the State, and Democracy: Governance Performance and the 2024 European Parliament Elections” was conducted by the Luskin School of Public Affairs at University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) in collaboration with the Los Angeles-based Berggruen Institute and the Hertie School, a university in Berlin, Germany. The report aims to understand the decline in democratic accountability and the rise of right-wing populism in Europe.
According to the report, policies such as crisis austerity measures and a failure to stimulate economic growth have eroded public confidence in democratic accountability. This discontent is fuelling the surge in right-wing populism, the report says.
“The rise in far-right populism is a result of austerity measures. Discontent moves towards the right, not the left,” said Edward L. Knudsen, one of the report’s authors and a doctoral researcher in international relations at the University of Oxford.
The report’s release, just two weeks before the European Parliament elections on June 6-9, is not expected to have a significant impact on the outcome. “National governments have the power to reverse the course of austerity-driven policies,” said Helmut K. Anheier, another author of the report and Adjunct Professor of Social Welfare at the UCLA Luskin School.
The report analyzed several hundred criteria to assess the state of democracy in Europe. It found that the management of many European countries has led to a growing backlash and lack of confidence in democracy, dating back to the 2010 global financial crisis and Eurocrisis.
The report shows that while public goods provision remains steady overall, prolonged budget cuts and austerity measures have weakened state capacity and democratic accountability, paving the way for right-wing gains.
The report’s findings are based on three main indicators: Democratic Accountability, State Capacity, and Public Goods Provision. It reveals that Western Europe generally has stronger indicators than Central and Eastern Europe, but declines were seen throughout.
Hungary, Slovenia, and Poland showed the largest declines in democratic accountability. According to Anheier, for every one-point decrease in democratic accountability, there is a 1.5-point increase in right-wing vote share.
When asked about the worst-case scenario, the authors pointed to migration and regional differences as underlying issues that could further fuel the rise of right-wing parties. Countries showing concerning signs include Hungary and Poland, which have been left behind economically, and Italy, which has experienced decades of economic stagnation.
The researchers also highlighted increasing economic and social anxiety among Europeans. While Europe remains a wealthy region with a high quality of life, the electorate is moving towards extreme ends of the political spectrum, particularly the far right, due to a perceived lack of political choice. This could lead to a “vicious cycle” of continued far-right gains and a fraying social fabric, the researchers warned.
“The right seizes on the perception that there is not enough to go around. Housing is a prime example of this,” said Knudsen. He also connected economic anxiety with fears surrounding migration, which has seen a surge in recent years. However, political solutions have been lacking, leading to a populist revolt.
“We have underinvested in state capacity, and then austerity kicked in,” said Anheier. He added that governments are stuck in a reactive state rather than a proactive one, making it difficult to solve public problems. “The state is hesitant to invest in the public. If issues such as migration, housing, and the cost of living crisis are not addressed, they will continue to fuel the far right,” he said.
To rebuild trust in democracy, which the researchers say will take multiple elections to achieve, they are urging governments to put an end to austerity policies that are increasing polarization and weakening Europe’s institutions.
In the long term, Anheier and Knudsen believe that increasing economic growth is crucial to reducing inequalities and addressing challenges such as climate change and migration. This requires investing in the future, starting with electing the right kind of politicians.
“If we had more business people and entrepreneurs in parliament, it would be much, much better, and we would have a different political culture,” said Anheier. Knudsen also stressed the need to acknowledge the transformation of the industrial base and working class and to invest in new industries, such as green industries. However, this requires planning beyond the next election cycle.
Now, the world waits to see if the European Parliament elections will reflect the demand for greater accountability, as outlined in the report.
For further coverage, visit the DNA digital newsroom at https://www.presseportal.de/en/nr/174021. The Democracy News Alliance is a collaboration between Agence France-Presse (AFP, France), Agenzia Nazionale Stampa Associata (AN
Derick is an experienced reporter having held multiple senior roles for large publishers across Europe. Specialist subjects include small business and financial emerging markets.