BRICS+ Expansion Highlights Geopolitical Shift, UCLA Report Finds
Los Angeles, California – The expansion of the BRICS group of nations into what has informally been named BRICS+ could highlight a major geopolitical shift, with the new grouping positioning itself as a counterpoint to the Western-led geopolitical order. This is according to a report published by the Luskin School of Public Affairs at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA).
The report, titled “Towards A New Global Contestation? Comparing the Governance Performance of G7 and BRICS+ Nations,” examines how the ten BRICS+ countries compare to the G7 nations on factors such as provision of public goods, quality of democracy and quality of governance. It uses the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) to measure the governance performance of countries in these three dimensions.
The term BRICS was originally coined by an economist in the 2000s to refer to a group of emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later, South Africa. In January 2024, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) joined the BRICS group, expanding it to BRICS+.
However, the term BRICS+ was originally coined in 2017 by the Russian President Vladimir Putin to refer to a group of emerging economies along with additional developing countries. This includes countries such as Indonesia, Turkey, and Mexico, which have shown interest in joining the group.
The report notes that the BRICS+ have a much larger combined population, which is expected to grow at a rate of 7.8% by 2025, which is twice as much as the G7 countries (United States, Germany, France, Japan, Canada, Italy and the United Kingdom). However, the economic output and per capita GDP of the BRICS+ countries are lower than those of the G7. The latter organization also boasts greater soft power, a term used to describe the exertion of influence over other nations through attraction and persuasion, not coercion or force.
“The projected growth rates of the BRICS+ members over the coming years are expected to enhance the group’s economic clout,” the report states, citing investment firm Goldman Sachs, which predicts Egypt’s GDP to increase by 635% by 2050.
However, the report also highlights that the quality of democracy according to the BGI index has declined in India, Brazil (during the rule of President Jair Bolsonaro) and China, with authoritarian trends persisting particularly in China, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
“Improvements in the provision of public goods have also been significant in some BRICS+ countries, even as state capacity and democratic accountability have declined,” the report states. Overall, the authors conclude, the BRICS+ countries appear increasingly susceptible to authoritarian rule.
The report also outlines two possible future scenarios, with an eye on the trends towards authoritarianism identified in most BRICS+ members. In the first scenario, the government of a given country cannot sustain improvements in delivering public goods, possibly due to declining resources, high debts or other economic factors. As a result, most of the population grows dissatisfied with the quality of life.
The second scenario would see some or most of the BRICS+ members reach a quality of life comparable to that of liberal democracies. According to the authors, this would challenge the belief that authoritarian governance cannot effectively scale public goods, and broad-based prosperity is correlated with adherence to democratic principles.
The report’s findings also indicate that most BRICS+ members do not seek increasing confrontation with their G7 counterparts, and instead engage in a strategy that mixes cooperation and contestation. This is a way for them to take advantage of opportunities that may open up during the current uncertain geopolitical conditions, while at the same time mitigating risks.
The Democracy News Alliance (DNA) has further coverage of the BRICS+ expansion and its potential impact. This includes analysis of the geopolitical implications and reactions from global leaders. The DNA content is an independent journalistic service that operates separately from the main news services of participating agencies. It is produced by editorial units that are not involved in the production of the agencies’ main news services. However, the editorial standards of the agencies and their assurance of completely independent, impartial and unbiased reporting also apply here.
Contact: Christian Röwekamp, Democracy News Alliance, roewekamp.christian@dpa.com
Derick is an experienced reporter having held multiple senior roles for large publishers across Europe. Specialist subjects include small business and financial emerging markets.